Pork prices rose by 40% year-on-year

The weakening of the US dollar this week has triggered a major rebound in commodity prices. In the US, the minutes of the Fed’s Wednesday meeting injected a boost to the tightening policy. The majority of members believe that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy and sell assets earlier than expected; the total number of new housing starts in April was equivalent to 523,000 units per year, a month-on-month decline. 10.6%; the US economy’s leading index index fell by 0.3% in April from the previous period; and as of May 14th, the US’s initial jobless claims fell by 29,000 to 40.9 million, the lowest level in nearly a month. Eurozone, IMF president Dominique Strauss-Kahn arrested, dragged the European debt crisis rescue process, the euro may face pressure. In addition, the annual rate of the British consumer price index rose by 4.5% in April, the highest level in more than three years. In China, in March 2011, China’s net reduction of US$9.2 billion U.S. Treasury bonds was the fifth consecutive month of net reductions since November last year.

International: Raw sugar futures fell sharply in the international market. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined last week. In addition, market concerns about the Greek debt crisis eased slightly. German manufacturing orders fell, and international crude oil prices this week The level of 100 US dollars / barrel fluctuations, the recent increase in the price of crude oil shocks, the market worried about the slowdown in global economic growth and the European debt crisis broke out again. In the base metals market, there was little change in London’s copper stocks this week. The recently released series of economic data in the United States was mixed. The United States announced existing home sales data and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (600,558, stocks) showed a decline in the manufacturing index in the central coastal regions. However, the U.S. employment data showed a strong performance, with copper holding above US$9,000/t. The lower US dollar also provided some support for the rise in copper prices.

In the agricultural product market, weather concerns re-dominated the market. Due to the damp weather, delaying the sowing of corn and soybeans, the growth of already planted crops also slowed down, and the prices of major agricultural products began to strengthen. CBOT yellow soybean prices are expected to hit the resistance of 1400 cents again in the near future. Affected by the abundant supplies of the largest sugarcane growing country, Brazil, and the major exporter of raw sugar, Thailand's raw sugar futures fell sharply this week, and long positions were positive, and the early rebound momentum was blocked.

Domestic: Accelerated increase in the price of meat, the diversification of the domestic commodity market trend, sugar and cotton continue to fall, and beans and oils begin to strengthen. Shanghai copper prices continued to follow the LME copper this week, stocks in the Shanghai Exchange fell sharply, Shanghai spot copper stocks rose strongly, the spot market was actively stocked, transactions were enlarged, Shanghai copper prices stabilized, and the main contract on Friday closed at 67550 yuan/ton on Friday. Slightly reduced positions, the current price spot hedging selling is not active, it is expected that the market outlook will continue to oscillate between 65,000 to 70000 yuan.

In terms of agricultural products, pork prices accelerated after May 1st. The current average price of pork in the country has increased by 43.5% year-on-year. The demand for feedstuff such as soybean meal and corn will increase significantly in the following days. Currently, the inventory of fats and oils is in the stage of maintaining basic supply, and the inventory level is low. Once started, prices will rise, soymeal will rise steadily this week, with palm oil and soybean oil rebounding strongly at the same time. Soybean oil futures prices will rise back above 10,000 yuan/ton. In January, soybean meal prices will return to a level close to 3,350 yuan. Increased, the signs of capital inflow are very obvious. Market rumors that the State Reserve will throw 200,000 tons of white sugar in the second half of May, which will help stabilize the supply of white sugar during the peak season. In addition, the domestic sugar and imported prices will continue to hang upside down. Domestic sugar will cost more than 1,000 yuan to import. Sugar prices continued to fall, domestic sugar price correction pressure increased, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rebounded weakly, once again entered the downward track, until Friday the main September contract closed at 6472 yuan / ton, fell 168 yuan per ton last week, the price The trend is weak.

Recommendation: Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank that buys beans on dips, believes that although the economic data released by the United States is relatively weak recently, the US economy can still resume growth in the second half of 2011 and will boost the US stock market and the US dollar. Zhou also issued a report on the commodity market, saying that agricultural products, especially corn and soybeans, are optimistic about their future price trends due to the reduction in planting area.

After undergoing major adjustments in the previous period, the commodity market has gradually stabilized. The cotton and natural rubber that led the decline earlier were the first to rebound. The fundamentals of prices of agricultural products such as beans and corn were relatively good, and the downside was limited. Buying legumes and fats and futures varieties at dips should be the current major investment strategy.